MP seat-sharing stalemate puts SP-Congress equations to the test, with possible aftershocks in UP

On Wednesday, SP declared candidates on 22 more seats in MP, taking tally to 31, a move likely to hurt its INDIA bloc ally’s prospects. Congress leaders says SP has no base in state.

 Upset with the Congress’s refusal to spare seats for them in Madhya Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP), it is learnt, is preparing to go solo and field more candidates — a move that is likely to hurt its INDIA bloc ally’s prospects by potentially eating into anti-incumbency votes. 

On Wednesday, the SP declared candidates on 22 more seats in Madhya Pradesh, taking the total number up to 31 (the candidature of one was put on hold).

SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had suggested Tuesday that he might not be amenable to “a state-level alliance” (read Uttar Pradesh) in the future if the Congress doesn’t want a state-level alliance (in Madhya Pradesh). This came days after the Congress fielded candidates on four seats in Madhya Pradesh where the SP had already announced candidates. Akhilesh’s party fielded four more candidates Sunday in addition to six declared in August. 

“Congress has to say whether the INDIA Bharat alliance is at the national level…If it’s not at state-level, in future, too, it will not happen at the state level,” Akhilesh told reporters in Kanpur Tuesday.

While the Opposition grouping hasn’t yet discussed the modality of their alliance, several leaders have suggested that it should be at the state-level and not national level, given that many INDIA constituents are principal rivals in one state but work together in another state. 

For instance, while the Congress is the principal challenger to the Left in Kerala, they have been aligning in West Bengal and Tripura. Similarly, the Congress is said to be interested in forming an alliance with the SP in Uttar Pradesh, but isn’t willing to partner with it in other states.

Asked by reporters if negotiations over an alliance in MP were ongoing between senior leaders of the Congress and SP, Akhilesh said that talks “went on till 1 am”, but didn’t move forward. 

The SP had won seven assembly seats in the Madhya Pradesh polls in 2003, which was its best electoral performance outside of UP. It had bagged a 3.71 percent vote share, and gained mostly in the constituencies bordering UP.

In two subsequent elections — 2008 and 2013 — the SP’s performance declined in MP. While it won only one seat (Niwari) in 2008 and pulled 1.90 percent of the vote share, it failed to win any seats in 2013. Then in 2018, it won the Bijawar seat when it registered 1.30 percent vote share. However, the lone SP MLA Rajesh Shukla switched over to the BJP in June last year.

An SP leader that his party is now planning to field more candidates in MP, adding that they had demanded 10-12 seats from the Congress in the poll-bound state, but the Congress state leadership wasn’t ready to yield. 

“Negotiations have reached an uneasy stage. We are now planning to contest more seats in MP but candidates are in wait and watch mode because national leadership of both the parties are still negotiating,” he further said, not wanting to be named.

SP leader Sunilam meanwhile  that the Congress state leadership has been “displaying arrogance”. 

He added: “If the Congress state leadership is showing arrogance, they should decide if they want to have an alliance or not…There are about 100 potential candidates of SP who can be given tickets in MP.”

However, party insiders termed this as “plan B” of the SP and an attempt to pressurise the Congress.

Speaking to UP Congress chief Ajay Rai said the SP has a weak base in MP, registering only one win in the last elections, while the Congress is in a direct fight with the BJP in that state.

“Akhilesh Yadav ji has to decide. They had one MLA in MP last time. In MP, you have the Congress fighting the BJP directly. SP has to support (Congress) to remove the BJP from power. Not like what happened in Bageshwar in Uttarakhand. Despite our support in Ghosi, we did not get support there. They have little base in MP,” he added, referring to the SP’s decision to field its candidate against Congress in the  Bageswar bypoll in September. The BJP ended up retaining the seat.

Asked about speculation that the Congress was demanding around 15-20 Lok Sabha seats in UP, Rai said they are preparing to fight all 80 seats in the state and a final call on seat sharing at national level will be taken by the central leadership.