50 seats with over 50 percent voteshare — why it’s not easy to dislodge KCR

Congress, BJP feel there's anti-incumbency against CM K Chandrashekar Rao & hope to capitalise on it, while analysts say move to repeat candidates could lead to 'dissidence' in 20-25 seats.

Over half of 88 MLAs of Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) — then Telangana Rashtra Samithi — who won in the 2018 Telangana assembly elections secured their victory with over 50 per cent vote share, up from 19 in 2014.

Of the 19 BRS MLAs who had won with such high vote shares in 2014, all but one seat came back to BRS’ fold in 2018, and 13 repeated the feat of winning their seats with over half of all votes in the constituency.

These figures suggest how difficult it is for opposition parties, especially in a triangular contest, to dislodge Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) from power. An opinion poll has, however, suggested a drastic fall in the BRS’ fortune in the coming election.

The ABP-C Voter opinion poll, released on 9 October, projected 48-60 seats for the Congress in the 119-member assembly, with a 10 percent positive swing in its favour.

In the last election, Congress was a distant second with 19 seats (four of which were won with over 50 per cent vote share) while the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) won seven seats, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) won two, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won one.

The opinion poll pegged BRS’ tally at 43-55 seats, with a negative swing of around 9 percent in vote share. The BRS could, though, probably take solace in that opinion polls have often gone wrong.

 Dr Harathi Vageeshan of department of political science at Telangana’s NALSAR University of Law said, “Situation is very dicey for sure. It’s a tough challenge for any scientific surveyor as well. But there is some sort of euphoria in the air… in the Congress camp. But we have to see the full Congress list which is yet to come.”

However, for the BRS camp, he said there is some “battle weariness”.

“Nothing very new or novel is appearing in the BRS manifesto. In a way, a little bit of battle weariness is appearing because they don’t have anything new to say. They are not very serious about questions related to governance, which I think the new voter will be seeking, and this time there is a sizable number of young voters.”

Gali Nagaraja, a Hyderabad-based political analyst, said that the Congress seems to be in a good position due to the optics formed thanks to its victory in Karnataka. “Since that survey, BRS seems to be improving. It will be a keen contest,.

Of the BRS’ 88 candidates who won in 2018, 76 are set to fight again on the party’s ticket from the same constituencies, indicating the party’s high confidence in its MLAs.

Out of the remaining 12 who did not feature in the BRS’ candidate list, two passed away during their tenure and in two seats that the party won in 2018, BRS is yet to announce its candidates.

Huzurabad MLA Eatala Rajendar jumped ship to the BJP in 2021. Koratla MLA Kalvakuntla Vidyasagar Rao’s son is set to replace him. Kamareddy MLA Gampa Govardhan has been replaced by KCR who is fighting on two seats.

“The Congress and the BJP said there is anti-incumbency and asked if the BRS has the courage to repeat the same candidates. They were saying that KCR is afraid and he is going to change many candidates. He (KCR) likes to take challenges,” Krishank Manne, BRS spokesperson and Chairman of the Telangana State Mineral Development Corporation (TSMDC).

But political scientist Harathi says that there will be “dissidence” due to repeat candidates in at least 20-25 assembly seats. “That may be very effective dissidence within the party. This dissidence, which they might be undermining, will be due to repeated candidates.”

Among those 50 BRS MLAs with over 50 percent vote share, seven had their vote shares between 60-70 percent. KCR’s son and minister K.T. Rama Rao won his seat, Sircilla, with 71 percent vote share. KCR’s nephew Harish Rao won his seat, Siddipet, with 78.6 percent vote share.

According to Gali Nagaraja, going into 2023 elections, BRS MLAs who won with over 50 percent vote share, will have an advantage: “For BRS candidates, there is some advantage because the opposition is not as strong. There might be anti-incumbency against KCR but the opposition parties are failing to make the most of the opportunity because of their internal problems.”