Why BJP is banking on SP, BSP & rebels to hurt Congress in 3 Madhya Pradesh regions

With less than a fortnight to go for polling in Madhya Pradesh, SP & BSP tickets for over 30 Congress rebels in fray could end up costing Kamal Nath-led state unit dearly.

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the road to power in Madhya Pradesh passes through swathes of anti-incumbency sentiment and fatigue stemming from its nearly uninterrupted 18 years in power. 

With most surveys by polling agencies suggesting that this bipolar electoral contest could go down to the wires, the ruling BJP is counting on the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and rebels to dent the Congress party’s prospects in multiple seats, particularly in the Vindhya, Bundelkhand, and Gwalior-Chambal regions, it is learnt.

According to party sources, in a closed-door meeting he chaired on 31 October during his three-day visit to the state, Union Home Minister Amit Shah asked state BJP leaders to help SP and BSP candidates cut into the votes of the Congress party by any means necessary.

In the 2018 assembly polls, the Congress won nine seats and lost six by a narrow margin, including many where either the SP or the BSP played spoiler. It now faces a challenge from non-BJP parties in at least 90 seats. Of these 90, the SP, BSP, or the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) could end up dividing the anti-incumbency vote in as many as 25 seats.

Besides Vindhya and Gwalior-Chambal, Madhya Pradesh’s Bundelkhand also has seats where the SP and BSP wield some influence, despite the region as a whole showing a clear tilt towards the BJP in past elections.

In the 2018 polls, both the SP and BSP gained one seat each in the Bundelkhand region, which accounts for 26 assembly seats — including six reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) — spread across six districts bordering Uttar Pradesh.

The BJP had won 16 of the 26 seats in the region in 2018, while the Congress won eight. But the BJP’s tally of MLAs in Bundelkhand surged to 18 and the Congress’s came down to seven after Rajesh Shukla, the SP MLA from Bijawar, switched over to the BJP in June last year and the Congress lost the Bada Malhera seat to the BJP in a bypoll in 2020.

However, with the BJP grappling with resentment among its cadres in at least five of these 26 seats, the Congress is hoping to shore up its electoral prospects in Bundelkhand.

The Vindhya region, meanwhile, accounts for 28 assembly seats spread across six districts, namely Rewa, Satna, Shahdol, Singrouli, Sidhi and Anuppur.

At the same time, the Gwalior-Chambal region comprises eight districts — Morena, Gwalior, Bhind, Shivpuri, Sheopur, Datia, Ashoknagar, and Guna — which together account for 35 assembly seats.

“In MP, elections have largely been fought between two players, the Congress and the BJP. But SP and BSP have an impact on many seats adjoining Uttar Pradesh. Their candidates can eat into the anti-incumbency vote,” a senior state BJP leader told ThePrint.

Though adding that this “will help the BJP” since “even 500 votes” can sway the contest in multiple seats, the leader maintained that this is merely one of the several variables the party is banking on to win the elections.

Asked what these other variables were, state BJP general secretary Harishankar Khatik said the party is going to the polls by keeping “development” ushered in by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan front and centre.